The hottest international high oil price drives al

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High international oil prices have driven all kinds of chemicals to "rise"

driven by the "runaway" international oil prices and the general rise of other basic raw materials, the prices of chemicals have entered a new round of rising channels, and the prices of domestic glyphosate, soda ash, fertilizer and other chemicals have risen to varying degrees since the third quarter of last year. The share prices of many listed chemical companies that benefited from the price rise also showed a strong trend

many analysts told Shanghai Securities News yesterday that this round of price rise of chemicals is generally a signal of "inflation" of raw material prices to the downstream, including the chain effect caused by the surge in international oil prices. In this regard, we must deeply analyze the causes and distinguish the situation of different chemicals, so that we can rationally judge the price trend of chemicals in the future

phenomenon: all kinds of chemicals have a "rising" sound

the "rising" sound of chemicals first sounded in the field of basic chemical industry

according to the data from China chemical information, in the second half of last year, all major domestic soda ash manufacturers ushered in a situation of "positive downstream pickup and short supply of products". Among them, due to the tight supply of goods, the ex factory price of light alkali has risen to 1800 yuan/ton by the end of the year, and the ex factory price of heavy alkali has reached 1850 yuan/ton. Although Shandong Haihua has been operating at full capacity, it still feels tight supply. By the end of the year, the ex factory price of light alkali was 1800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of heavy alkali was 1950 yuan/ton, both significantly higher than at the beginning of the year. As for the soda ash price of Qingdao Soda Industry, it continued to soar in a few days after the new year's Day holiday, with an overall increase of about 180 yuan/ton. At present, the delivery price of the company's light alkali is 1950 yuan/ton, and the delivery price of heavy alkali is 2010 yuan/ton. The company no longer accepts new orders

in the field of pesticide varieties, glyphosate is the most popular. Driven by strong international demand and other factors, the price of glyphosate has climbed from less than 30000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to more than 50000 yuan/ton at present. At the same time, it also led the rise in the price of glycine, which rose from 14000 yuan/ton to 20000 yuan/ton

in addition, the once contained rise in the price of chemical fertilizers has been renewed since the second half of 2007. Statistics show that in late November last year, the ex factory price of urea rose rapidly from about 1600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1900 yuan/ton, with an average increase of 100 yuan per week; The ex factory price of domestic diammonium phosphate is as high as 3200 yuan/ton, but it is unknown that it has increased by 500 yuan from 2700 yuan at the beginning of the month; The ex factory price of monoammonium phosphate reached 3100 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan over the beginning of the month; The price of domestic compound fertilizer, which has been stable at 1700 to 1800 yuan in the past two years, has also risen to 2550 yuan; The price of potassium chloride has generally reached more than 2800 yuan, an increase of more than 300 yuan over the beginning of the month

the data also shows that compared with the same period in 2003, since the third quarter of last year, the prices of other products except urea have increased by more than 1000 yuan/ton, which means that the price of each bag of fertilizer has increased by more than 50 yuan

causes: cost promotion and international market drive

"on the whole, the sharp rise in the price of chemicals in this round is a manifestation of the 'inflation' of raw material prices transmitted to the downstream. Specifically, the rise in the price of some chemical products is driven by international oil prices, in addition to environmental protection laws and regulations, supply and demand imbalance and other reasons." He Wei, an analyst at Guodu securities and petrochemicals, said in an interview with Shanghai Securities News yesterday

he pointed out that the price rise of different chemicals must be analyzed differently. Taking nitrogen fertilizer as an example, the rise in the price of such bulk commodities is largely affected by the rise in sea freight, which has a series of R & D capabilities from resin formula to composite material utilization and development, which is related to both international oil prices and the number of ships

Shi Xuesong, an analyst at CICC, believes that behind the rise in the price of chemical fertilizers are the rapid development of Global Bioenergy and the massive planting of bioenergy crops, which have led to the tight supply of chemical fertilizers in the world

"for soda ash, its price rise is mainly the result of increased downstream demand. Due to the continuous surge in the output of glass, alumina and other products, and the capacity expansion speed of soda ash has not kept up, resulting in the price rise after the disconnection between supply and demand." He Wei analyzed

it is reported that since last year, the main downstream industries of soda ash have shown a good growth momentum. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to October 2007, flat glass increased by 14.6%, daily-use glass increased by 26.8%, alumina production increased by 49.7%, chemical pesticide industry increased by 22.2%, synthetic detergent increased by 11.5%, while the growth rate of soda ash production from January to October was only 11.0%, significantly lower than the growth rate of downstream industries

as for glyphosate, the most eye-catching in this round of chemical price rise, He Wei believes that it is related to foreign environmental protection legislation. Due to the new environmental protection regulations, Monsanto, a major glyphosate producer in the United States, stopped expanding its glyphosate production capacity and turned to other countries in the world, especially China, for procurement, which led to a surge in domestic glyphosate prices

as the largest glyphosate producer in the world, Monsanto has a production capacity of about 200000 tons/year, accounting for about 20% of the total global production capacity

trend: short-term phenomenon or long-term boom

"as far as I know, the current capacity under construction in the domestic soda industry is large, and the recent price rise may only be a phased behavior." He Wei said

an analyst at Andersen Securities believes that by the end of this year, the production rate of soda ash will be lower than the growth of demand, and the situation of supply exceeding demand will obviously continue to maintain. "Therefore, we judge that the price of soda ash is likely to jump to a new level and drive the soda ash industry into a new business cycle."

in the field of chemical fertilizer, He Wei believes that its price trend will be affected by national policies to a large extent, which is also the first administrative penalty order issued by Leliu Office of Shunde Inspection and Quarantine Bureau this year. Once the government further raises export tariffs, it will curb the previously crazy export of chemical fertilizers at one fell swoop and help suppress prices. In his view, the recent rise in urea prices is also a short-term behavior and will not last long

"we judge that the global price of potash and phosphate fertilizer will continue to rise, while the price of nitrogen fertilizer will fluctuate with the energy price." Shi Xuesong said that considering the large-scale export of domestic urea in the fourth quarter of last year and the recent increase in export tariffs, the price of nitrogen fertilizer will be first high and then low, while the price of phosphorus fertilizer will continue to rise driven by costs, and sulfuric acid and phosphate rock dominant enterprises will benefit from it

the Research Report of Changjiang Securities shows that the domestic nitrogen fertilizer production capacity has been surplus, the industry will enter the downward channel, and the investment prospect is poor. The production of phosphate fertilizer industry is concentrated in resource-based enterprises, and it is suggested that investors should focus on resource-based enterprises. As for the potash fertilizer industry, as more than 70% of domestic demand still depends on imports, the domestic price is still largely determined by the price trend of imported potash fertilizer. Although Salt Lake potash, CITIC Guoan and Lop Nur potash companies continue to expand investment, their production capacity will still be seriously insufficient in the short term. The price rise of imported potash fertilizer this year is a foregone conclusion, and there is still room for domestic potash fertilizer prices to rise

as for the prospect of glyphosate, He Wei believes that the entry threshold of this industry is obviously not high, and the production cycle is relatively short. Therefore, with the production of a large number of domestic glyphosate projects, the price of this product is expected to gradually return to rationality. "This is very similar to the situation of TDI. Previously, the price of TDI once decreased by 24.33% from 28 to 56000 yuan year-on-year, but as the production capacity kept up, the price almost kept falling."

an analyst at Changjiang Securities said that although the new production capacity of glyphosate in China will be put into operation in the next year and the second half of next year, there will be a certain downward pressure on its price, but due to the rigid support of the rapid growth of international demand and the increasing pressure of domestic environmental protection, the price of glyphosate will also be supported at a high level, and there is little room for decline this year

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