Machinery manufacturing: international leaders have entered the peak of production expansion and continue to be optimistic about the lithium equipment industry
investment points international leaders have begun to expand production, and the number of recruits is expected to double in 2019. Recently, affected by the rumors of decline, the lithium equipment sector has adjusted. However, as for the long-term development of the motor car industry predicted by electricity experts, the industry development can be healthier without relying on subsidies. The investment of first-line car companies and battery companies represented by Tesla in China is accelerating. According to public information statistics, the existing capacity of five major battery plants in the world, catl, LG, Panasonic, Samsung and BYD, is about 106gwh. It is expected that by 2022, the capacity will increase by 333gwh, reaching 439gwh, and the corresponding equipment demand will reach 116.1 billion yuan. In addition, Tesla super factory battery investment is expected to exceed expectations. At present, LG, Panasonic, Samsung and other international leaders have begun to enter the peak of production expansion. We expect the industry to double the number of recruits in 2019. We are optimistic about the equipment opportunities under the acceleration of the general trend of electrification in the medium and long term. Lithium battery equipment leaders with global competitiveness such as leading intelligence are expected to fully benefit from this round of higher quality production expansion cycle, and the high growth of orders in 2019 is expected
the layout of international leading car enterprises and battery enterprises in Chinese Mainland has been implemented one after another. The peak of production expansion of leading battery plants will continue until 2025, from the landing of electric vehicle factories (T-5 years) to the launch of vehicle models (T-3 years), to battery procurement (T-3 years), to the expansion of battery plants (T-3 years) to equipment bidding (t years). We expect that the whole process will take five years
therefore, it is estimated that the annual penetration rate of electric vehicles will reach 25%. The launch of new car factories will be concentrated around 2020. Battery factories that enter the supply chain system of leading car enterprises will also start to expand production and speed up further from 2018. The peak of expansion of leading battery factories will continue to 2025
equipment is in short supply & the concentration of upstream battery plants has increased, and the profitability and cash flow inflection point of equipment enterprises are up in 2019. At present, the production capacity of equipment enterprises is limited. We believe that as the downstream leading battery plants enter the peak of production expansion, the equipment price may rise slightly due to supply and demand problems, and the profitability of equipment companies is expected to be further improved
the cash flow of equipment manufacturers in 2018 1.4 the adoption of three pulse signal acquisition channels (three pulse signals are one displacement signal and two large deformation signals respectively) was negatively affected by the profitability of downstream third and fourth tier battery plants, similar to Yinlong's impact on the pilot's profits in 2018. We believe that with the increase of capacity concentration in the battery industry, the profitability and cash flow of equipment enterprises will turn upward from 2019
profit forecast and investment suggestions: we continue to be optimistic about the lithium battery equipment industry. With the expansion of international leading car manufacturers and battery manufacturers in China, the equipment manufacturers entering the international supply chain will offset the fluctuations caused by the domestic subsidies provided to you by the technical parameters of the sling experimental machine in the short term, and the long-term benefits of double points will bring the long-term mechanism of the industry. Highlight the world's leading lithium battery equipment leader
[leading intelligence]: we expect the annual net profit to be 800 million/1.27 billion/1.8 billion, corresponding to 30/19/13 times PE, maintaining the "buy" rating. 2.
[(,)] cathode material capacity continues to expand + Haoneng technology has sufficient orders for lithium coating equipment. 3.
[putailai] core equipment + key materials, synergy leads the upstream of lithium battery industry according to the company's disclosure. It is suggested to pay attention to: power lithium battery recycling scarce target
[(,)], third-party lithium battery pack leader
risk tip: the car sales are lower than expected, the production expansion speed of the battery factory is lower than expected, and the industry competition is intensifying