The hottest international gold price sensitive Chi

2022-08-24
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Sensitive to international gold prices, China offers more choices

on December 4, local time, the referendum on constitutional amendment in Italy officially kicked off, and the people will choose whether to change their current domestic political system. In view of the public cursor following display function, etc; The investment results may bring a series of chain reactions, and the international gold price trend has thus entered a highly sensitive period. Analysts pointed out that after the brexit of the UK and the election of the US, the global uncertainty has not been reduced. Seeing that the gold price has repeatedly been on the "roller coaster", we cannot ignore the positive factors in the world economy. In fact, only through comprehensive judgment can we make the most appropriate asset allocation decision

uncertainty ensues

the aftermath of brexit in the UK is not smooth, and the referendum in Italy is on the rise again. It is understood that under the current system, the power of the Italian government is greatly restricted by the parliament, which to a large extent affects the efficiency of decision-making and governance

although the result of the referendum has not been released as of press time, the uncertainty it brings to the international market is obvious. Sunyanhong, an associate researcher at the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that, on the one hand, the current process of European integration has stalled; On the other hand, Italy's debt is high, the banking system is fragile, and the "five-star movement" advocating the withdrawal from the euro zone has a rapid development momentum. Therefore, the outside world is generally worried that the failure of the referendum may lead Italy into a new political and economic crisis, which will endanger the stability and even survival of the euro zone. In addition, it is also pointed out that even if the referendum is successful, the road of economic reform in Italy will not be smooth in the future

a series of uncertain events have followed, making the international gold price a "roller coaster". According to Comex data, since the second half of this year, the international gold price has soared to $1377.50 per ounce after the British referendum. After several shocks, it began to fall gradually after the U.S. election, and is currently maintained at around $1179.2 per ounce

market participants pointed out that the previous decline of gold price was in the process of finding the "bottom of the market". At present, the room for decline has become increasingly limited. With the final implementation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in December, the gold price is expected to turn a corner. It is worth noting that once the Italian constitutional referendum becomes the next "black swan", the gold market association and polyurethane enterprises such as Wanhua, Huafeng, Bayer, BASF, gurec will benefit from it

rational analysis of hedging demand

since uncertainty will lead to an increase in hedging demand, can we decisively "bottom" gold? In the view of insiders, it is obvious that decisions should not be made intuitively based on oneortwo events, but should be rationally analyzed by various factors

In an interview with this newspaper, Wan Zhe, chief economist of China Gold Group, pointed out that the current operation law of gold price is the same as in the past: on the one hand, risk aversion will provide the driving force for the rise of gold price. When the results of important events are unexpected, gold and other risk averse currencies usually rise. On the other hand, the gold price itself is also affected by the flow of funds. For example, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, which is likely to come, will lead to a further strengthening of the dollar, thus reducing the market demand for gold

"The data shows that the current U.S. economic recovery is relatively stable, and its unemployment has changed from demand-based unemployment to structural unemployment. Therefore, what is more noteworthy at present is the frequency and timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike next year. In this context, the continued pressure on gold prices will be a high probability event. At the same time, the political instability caused by the economic crisis in the eurozone countries has now begun to take shape, and this risk will be to some extent Give some support to the gold price. " Wan zhe said that for market investors, uncertainty is of course both a risk and an opportunity, but different investors should comprehensively study and judge their own assets, investment methods and investment purposes, and finally issue a test report once to complete and adopt different strategies

in fact, the views of international institutions on the trend of gold prices are also "tangled". UBS Group believes in a report that since the current real interest rate is still low, it is expected that the gold price will rise again to $1300/oz in the next few months. Even if the gold price falls further due to the Fed's interest rate hike, the decline will be limited. Goldman Sachs lowered its gold price forecast to $1200 per ounce in the next three and six months based on the impact of the U.S. economic recovery and the redemption of gold ETFs (trading open-end index funds)

China offers more choices

however, for investors at home and abroad, the improvement of China's economic transformation and upgrading (Aiji, net worth, information) and the improvement of the internationalization level of the RMB will undoubtedly provide more choices. Recently, Standard Chartered Bank, HSBC, National Bank of Australia, Moody's and other overseas institutions have successively released research reports and commentary articles, saying that they are optimistic about China's economic growth prospects. All parties believe that at present, consumption plays an increasingly obvious role as a stabilizer of China's economy; Industrial added value remained stable; The tertiary industry has developed rapidly, its scale has exceeded the traditional industry and is still growing. With the continuous appearance of the effect of the steady growth policy and the continuous promotion of the supply side structural reform, China's economy will continue to stabilize and improve

"no matter how the U.S. economy is, the global economy is hard to say that it has survived the crisis. The so-called risk aversion demand caused by risk also needs to be seen in a longer time." Wan zhe said that at present, China's reform is constantly advancing, and at the same time, it has put forward the global governance path of win-win cooperation such as the "the Belt and Road", which has set a good example for itself and other economies to solve structural problems, carry out transformation and expand opening-up, which is undoubtedly something that investors in the gold market should not ignore

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